Sockeye run expected to be the biggest in recorded history
Lukasz Jonca / South Delta Leader, July 10, 2014
Expectations for the Fraser River sockeye salmon run this year are high as the four year breeding cycle has come full circle.
According to the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO), returns for the Fraser River sockeye are expected to fall within a range of 7.3 million to 72.5 million fish for the 2014 season.
A remarkable feature of the sockeye run is a phenomenon called “cyclical dominance,” where one age group of the fish dominate the breeding cycle. In sockeye it is usually the four-year-old fish. This is why higher returns are expected every four years.
“This is a year that we expect the big return to the Adams River and so 2010 was a very big year and here we are four years later,” said Jennifer Nener, Area Director for DFO.
According to Nener there is no set date to open up commercial fishing but expectations are it will be at the end of July or early August.
The forecast, however, is uncertain because the large spawning areas associated with the historic run in 2010 are outside of the range of historical data used to predict the returns.
“Fundamentally, it looks at the returns in the previous generation.” Nener said.
“The number of spawners that came back in 2010 would be a key factor in terms of the modeling process in calculating in what we would expect to return four years later.”
In the summer of 2010 the estimated return of Fraser River sockeye was 28.2 million fish. This year the run is supposed to eclipse that total.
Ladner fishermen are well aware of the prognostications.
“They expect the biggest sockeye run in history,” said Frank Wu, an employee at Stillwater Sports.
“According to the department of fisheries it’s supposed to be a big run," said Matthew Kraft at Stillwater Sports. "Numbers range from I’ve heard 60 million to 104 million. So, even if we get one third of the expected big return it’s still a lot of fish. There’ll be fish going up every nook and cranny.”
The DFO manages sockeye fisheries based on actual in-season returns of the fish. These numbers are determined through test fisheries, counting devices and various stock sampling programs.
Debbie Wilson, co-owner of Superior Fish Market in Ladner said that many customers at the store have been asking about the extra abundance of returning fish and it would be great news for consumers as prices would take a significant drop.
“The prices should go down a lot, I figure they’ll drop anywhere from 10 to 30 per cent,” Wilson said.
The sockeye salmon are the most sought after due to their superior flesh, colour and quality. They are considered a favourite of the international community because of their rich oil content and deep red colours.
